Friends + Interlocutors,

There is no doubt China and the US are act­ively pre­par­ing for war against each other.—Gideon Rach­man

Yes, this certainly appears to be the case, at least that is how the Washington foreign policy establishment, The Blob, sees it. As chief foreign affairs correspondent for the Financial Times, Rachman is a non-resident Blob member in good standing.

At the moment, Washington is not pivoting to the Indo-Pacific region to confront China. It has unfinished business in the Middle East, assigned to it by Netanyahu. The destruction of Iran. That project has been in the planning stages for years, long before the enthronement of Donald Trump, who fancies himself an Emperor. 

He is now carrying it out, or trying to, as part of his mixed-up “Make America Great Again” agenda. It makes no sense and, in fact, is an idiotic and criminal enterprise. But it does follow a pattern. No one in the Blob is really objecting. The neocons and neoliberals just wish it was over sooner and was more successful.

There are two problems with the scenario. (a) China is not a threat so there is no need to pivot, and (b) neither is Iran.

As previously noted in another entry, I get down on my knees almost every night to pray that Washington never, ever pivots to the Far East to confront China. Why? Because China is not a threat to America, any more than Germany was a threat to England prior to the Great War of 1914. 

China is not seeking to expand its territory. It is simply expanding its influence and commercial prowess, just like the Kaiser’s Germany was doing. This is a natural phenomenon. It does not constitute a casus belli. 

Let’s not go down that road leading to the Thucydides Trap like England. 

I am reminded of the exchange in 1907 between U.S. Ambassador Henry White and British ex-Prime Minister Lord Arthur Balfour on the subject of Anglo-German relations. I can’t get it out of my head.

Balfour: “We are probably fools not to find a reason for declaring war on Germany before she builds too many ships and takes away our trade” 

White: “You are a very high-minded man in private life. How can you possibly contemplate anything so politically immoral as provoking a war against a harmless nation which has a good a right to a navy as you have? If you wish to compete with German trade, work harder.” 

Balfour: “That would mean lowering our standard of living. Perhaps it would be simpler for us to have a war.”

White: “I am shocked that you of all men should enunciate such principles.”

Balfour: “Is it a question of right or wrong? Maybe it is just a question of keeping our supremacy.” 

[See Henry White, Thirty Years of American Diplomacy, by Allan Nevins, 1930.]

Like the British in 1914, and their obsession with Germany, Washington is sleepwalking to a war with China (and Russia) in a vain effort to maintain U.S. “supremacy”. American politicians are obsessed with both China and Russia, seeing them as threats to be confronted. 

Concurrently, Washington has turned over the U.S. military and U.S. treasury to Israel to consolidate and expand Israel's conquest of Palestine, thereby enabling all sorts of atrocities, including the U.S. war on Iran. How long can such abject lunacy prevail before there is a world-wide explosion?  

Patrick

=====