Friends + Interlocutors,

Another informative conversation between Professor John Mearsheimer and Australian journalist Tom Switzer on the topic of the scandalous, irrational and unprovoked war on Iran. Just want to add a few comments of my own.

The current state of affairs appears to be an impasse. Trump has repeatedly said that Iran is eager for a deal. If that is so, why has Trump stepped up the bombardment of Iran to force it to the negotiating table? Has Iran come to the understandable conclusion that trying to negotiate with Donald Trump is a fool’s errand? If so, what the hell is going to happen next?

Washington had a deal, or rather a preliminary deal, with the Memorandum of Understanding. But Trump commenced to blow up that deal from the get-go. First by interfering with the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz and secondly by allowing free rein to Netanyahu to bomb Lebanon and attack Hezbollah.

I have stated previously my opinion that Trump signed the MoU only as a temporary measure, to halt the conflict in order to reassess the situation before proceeding further. My guess is that Netanyahu asked Trump to do that because Israel was being successfully hammered by Iran’s missiles and drones just like the U.S. bases in the Gulf kinglets. Israel was running out of interceptors to make a difference. 

What is the result of the MoU and Trump's subsequent abandonment of it? Israel has successfully exited the war, the war which Netanyahu and his minions in the U.S. conned Trump into launching in the first place, and now Washington is stuck holding the bag. Trump does not want to let go. 

Meanwhile, Israel occupies southern Lebanon and Trump and Marco Rubio have deliberately set the stage for a civil war in Lebanon to destroy that long-suffering country. Therefore achieving, on Israel’s behalf, what Washington has already done to Iraq, Libya and Syria. Concurrently, Iran has its hands full with Trump and is not attacking Israel.

Things are working out well for Tel Aviv, it seems to me, but not so well for Uncle Sam and the American people. All this thanks to the Trump-Netanyahu partnership and the enduring Israel Lobby in the U.S. which has bamboozled the American public, bought its elected officials, and taken over its foreign policy establishment.

The points that British ex-ambassador Craig Murray made on July 1st  are worth revisiting:

To understand the American position, it is important to realise two key points:

• Greater Israel is an absolute priority
• Opening the Strait of Hormuz is not a US priority

While the US/Israeli alliance were defeated in their attempt to impose regime change on Iran, and indeed have consolidated the popular support of the Iranian government, they have succeeded in expanding Greater Israel. Israel has ethnically cleared and devastated a vast swathe of Southern Lebanon, expanding its military footprint, and notably attempting to repeat its ploy from November 2024 of pushing forward its armour under cover of ceasefire.

Israeli withdrawal from Southern Lebanon has been a major negotiating point for the Iranian government and is a key – indeed the very first – point of the Iran/USA MOU. But in an extraordinary coup aimed at negating that deal, the USA has signed a deal with Israel and its puppet Aoun regime in Lebanon which seeks to legitimise Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon through the agreement of the “Lebanese government”.

When Murray says that opening the Strait is not a U.S. priority he points to Trump’s business outlook that the U.S. is self-sufficient in oil. Ergo the problem with getting oil exported through the Strait is ultimately the problem for others who are not self-sufficient, eg. Europe, Japan and China. The central priority for Trump and Washington remains Israel which has been promoting conflict with Iran ever since the Shah was overthrown.

It is anybody’s guess how this war will end, but if you want to scare yourself about the downside possibilities, you might listen to the audio version of Regime Change, Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump by two NY Times reporters. Behind the scenes of Trump’s second term, up to the U.S. attack on Iran. It is even-handed and alarming.

Patrick

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