Friends + Interlocutors,

I had an exchange of views with a U.S. foreign policy professional last month (August 17th) re the Middle East. In view of the present killings in Lebanon, Tehran, Gaza and the West Bank, it may be of interest. Herewith my side...

“With respect to Israel, clearly there exists an imbalance of power in favor of Tel Aviv. That is the bottom line. Everything flows from it. Israel has total air superiority over all of the Arab Middle East. It’s a free-fire zone. Israel has been overflying Damascus and Beirut for decades and bombing Syria and Lebanon with complete impunity, backed up with total support from Washington. 

“That will continue, especially in a Presidential election year, with both candidates vying for Jewish campaign contributions, support and votes.

“The USG jettisoned the “peace process” (or rather the charade of the peace process) after the Camp David summit blew up in 2000. Bill Clinton indeed became the hapless “wooden Indian” he complained about. The President of the United States could not or would not push back on Prime Minister Ehud Barak. The Neocons in Washington, acting on Israel’s behalf, and the Likud in Israel have been in the saddle ever since.

“At the moment, Tel Aviv has effectively destroyed Gaza, again with impunity and unbridled Washington support. The only thing Israel has not done is occupy it with boots on the ground, but that may not be necessary or even desirable. In the past, the grass was cut; this time, the grass has been burnt to the roots.  

“The only ‘victory’ for Hamas would be if it were still left in nominal control, albeit with an obliterated, occupied and cut-off territory, at the mercy of the Tel Aviv-Washington axis. The only upside Hamas might have is solely one of propaganda; further evidence of genocide for all the world to see. But neither Tel Aviv nor its ‘indispensable nation’ puppets in Washington will mind, since they control the narrative and Hamas has been branded a ‘terrorist organization’.

“In any event, few in America are aware or care. As for Europe, I am appalled and frankly surprised by its lack of action, aside from the World Court. Evidently, the Israel Lobby has a hammer lock not just on the U.S. but on Europe as well.

“I am not surprised that Tehran and Hezbollah have not retaliated for the targeted assassinations on their territory. Iran and Lebanon could face annihilation. If push came to shove, southern Lebanon would  be carpet-bombed back to the dark ages with bunker-busting bombs supplied by the Pentagon. And Beirut itself would be seriously bombed just for good measure. Lebanon has no anti-aircraft weapons.

“Hezbollah has all those rockets, but they would not, it seems to me, have much of a chance to use them in an all-out war. Lebanon would simply be overwhelmed by Israeli airpower. Again, Hezbollah like Hamas has been branded a terrorist organization by Washington and Tel Aviv, so anything goes. Anything.

“As for Iran, the Berlin-gifted, German-built U-boats in the Persian Gulf effectively checkmate Tehran. These submarines can launch tactical nuclear cruise missiles into Iran with impunity, no doubt with Washington's support. Tehran's last missile attack on Israel was not serious. It was only meant to send a signal that Israel could be hit. However, Israel is too small a target. Missiles could go astray and hit the occupied Arab population on the West Bank or Gaza or the desert or the Mediterranean.

“For these and various other reasons, the Arabs and the Palestinians have been checkmated. It remains to be seen what price America will pay for making it all possible instead of acting as an honest broker or enforcing a two-state solution.”

Patrick

=====