In today’s chaotic world, we can sum up the shift in the global economy and geopolitics with a single number: 1 trillion.
The year 2024 will be remembered as the first time in history that a national government’s interest payments on its debt exceeded US$1 trillion, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.
Despite US President Donald Trump’s pledge to cut federal spending and his aggressive global trade war, the United States is now adding US$1 trillion in national debt every 71 days – up from every 150 days in 2024, according to the US Congress Joint Economic Committee. This pace marks the fastest peacetime accumulation of national debt in history, with no sign of slowing soon.
Last year, the Trump administration unveiled a plan to reach a US$1 trillion defence budget by the late 2020s – a target later revised upwards to a staggering US$1.5 trillion by 2027.
Trump, who has lamented being overlooked by the Nobel Peace Prize committee, ordered military strikes on seven countries during the first year of his second term. US military spending last year was estimated between US$832 billion and US$962 billion. Barring a major surprise, the US is poised to become the first nation ever to spend US$1 trillion annually on its military – either this year or next.
Some observers may shrug off these figures, noting the surprising resilience of the US economy. Annualised gross domestic product (GDP) growth hit 4.3 per cent in the third quarter of last year, outpacing most other developed economies, which are significantly smaller in absolute terms.
This strength stems largely from robust artificial intelligence (AI) investment and consumer spending. Despite ongoing tariff wars, nominal personal consumption rose by 3.7 per cent in 2025, adding over US$1.2 trillion year on year. Meanwhile, major US tech firms poured US$437 billion into AI technology in 2025 alone – an increase of 61 per cent from 2024.
Fuelled by the AI boom, the US now hosts nine companies with market capitalisations above US$1 trillion. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway stands as the only non-tech member of this elite “trillion-dollar club”. Notably, no mainland Chinese firms made the list.
Yet a deeper look reveals another reality. According to Forbes, the 15 richest billionaires in the US added US$1 trillion to their collective net worth during the first year of Trump’s second term – the fastest concentration of wealth at the top in recorded history.
At the same time, a trillion-dollar crisis unfolded at the bottom. American credit card debt, having crossed the US$1 trillion mark in 2023, surged to a record US$1.23 trillion last year. The New York-based Bankrate reported that 46 per cent of US adults with credit cards carried a balance, “often relying solely on credit to afford basic necessities”. A study by Academy Bank found that 73 per cent of American credit cardholders used borrowed funds for essentials such as medical bills, home and car repairs and daily living expenses.
Across the globe, China is forging its own “trillion” milestones. Last year, it became the first nation ever to post a US$1 trillion annual trade surplus – an extraordinary feat given the intensifying trade war with the US and growing resistance from the European Union.
Beijing achieved this by aggressively expanding into non-US markets, especially Belt and Road Initiative countries. As of last year, China’s trade surplus with belt and road nations had surpassed its surplus with the US, driven by a strategic push up the value chain through hi-tech exports such as electric vehicles, solar panels and advanced electronics.
While this export surge offers relief to an economy still grappling with weak domestic demand, it has heightened anxieties in the West. The so-called China Shock 2.0 may intensify as Beijing remains laser-focused on technological and manufacturing upgrades. In March, China is set to unveil its next five-year plan covering 2026-2030, with analysts widely expecting R&D spending to surpass nominal US$1 trillion by the end of the period.
According to a forecast by US-based R&D World magazine, China matched the US in research and development expenditure on a purchasing power parity basis last year – with each surpassing US$1 trillion – and is projected to overtake it this year. The report called this shift “the sharpest reversal of innovation leadership in the modern era”.
The US has led global R&D since the 1950s, peaking at 69 per cent of worldwide spending in 1960. By 2020, that share had fallen to 31 per cent, and it is now on the verge of being eclipsed.
For two decades, China’s R&D investment has grown faster than its GDP – a trajectory reminiscent of US military spending patterns. Under President Xi Jinping and amid Western tech restrictions, innovation has become a top-tier policy priority.
In 2024 and 2025 combined, China committed 1 trillion yuan (US$143 billion) to its semiconductor industry, and in 2025 alone, it invested another 1 trillion yuan in renewable energy.
Its total education spending, which reached US$906 billion in 2023, is expected to cross the US$1 trillion threshold this year. Even as the central government pledged overall fiscal restraint, it reaffirmed that education funding would “only increase and never decrease”.
Admittedly, the full picture is far more nuanced than these headline-grabbing trillions suggest. Yet taken together, these figures offer a revealing window into the emerging global order.
While the world fixates on US military adventurism in Venezuela or threats to annex Greenland, history is being shaped by quieter, structural shifts. When future historians reflect on this era, they may well ask how we missed the obvious trillion-dollar question staring us in the face.
Chow Chung-yan began his journalistic career at the South China Morning Post and rose to become Editor-in-Chief in 2025. He has been running the SCMP’s day-to-day news operations since 2011.
