Friends + Interlocutors,

Everything everybody needs to know:

Let me add that I remain pessimistic that the Memorandum of Understanding signed by Trump is going to lead to a peaceful settlement. U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who thinks he is running for President in 2028 and remains a cutout for Netanyahu, has said that peace is not possible on all fronts. 

Translation: Washington will not instruct Israel to stop attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon and will not stop Israel from occupying half of Lebanon. This contradicts the spirit if not the letter of the MoU. So it looks to me like the MoU was signed by Trump simply to open the Strait of Hormuz, and nothing more. 

At the moment, Netanyahu and Israel have next to nothing to show for precipitating the war on Iran. Grabbing southern Lebanon would be a consolation prize. Yahoo has got to hold onto it. Is Trump prepared to go all-in to demand otherwise? Unlikely. Yet, Trump personally signed the MoU which mandated it.

Patrick

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