Friends + Interlocutors,

Trump has decided to make an abrupt mid-course correction in the Middle East. The war he initiated in full partnership with the war criminal and con man, Netanyahu, did not turned out like he expected. It has blown up in his face. 

Immediately after the decapitation sneak attack which he and Netanyahu ordered, Trump, now a full-fledge war criminal, said he would accept nothing but unconditional surrender from Iran. That did not happen. Instead, Iran responded with defensive missile strikes against Israel and U.S. assets in the region. It closed the Strait of Hormuz. 

The world economy was headed for a train wreck. In the meantime, Netanyahu took the opportunity to grab more land in Lebanon and bomb downtown Beirut. He was in his glory. 

Now Trump wants to negotiate his way out of the quagmire which he himself created. He has signed a memorandum with Iran which constitutes a ceasefire and an optimistic road map to an overall peace deal. Israel and its peanut gallery in America are enraged. Iran is still standing.

There are some problems. Washington negotiated the memorandum of understanding with Iran but without its partner in crime, Tel Aviv. Yet, the memorandum states that Lebanon is part of the framework, that the ceasefire includes Lebanon and acknowledges its territorial integrity. 

Naturally, Netanyahu is upset. He wants to continue to bomb Lebanon at will, like Gaza, and grab more land as part of the Greater Israel project.

So at the end of the day, the MoU all comes down to Lebanon. It hinges on Lebanon. This gives Netanyahu leverage to blow up the deal. All he has to do is keep attacking Lebanon. Is Trump and JD Vance going to stop him? 

Does Netanyahu even have a choice to stop the attacks himself, since he is surrounded by Likud crazies in his coalition who are even crazier than he is? Are Trump and Vance ready to seriously confront Netanyahu and Israel’s peanut gallery in America?

These are just some of the problems at this juncture. In the background is the possibility that Iran will renew its attacks on Israel if Israel continues to bomb Lebanon, which Israel is now doing. At that point, the crazies in Tel Aviv might decide to launch a barrage of Tomahawk nukes into Iran from their German-gifted U-boats in the Indian Ocean.

This madness definitely did not start with Trump, but it may very well end with him.

Patrick

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